Dateline: Lumina Markets, product launch, 19 October 2026

Lumina Markets, a New York broker registered with the CFTC as an introducing broker, launched its web and mobile prediction market app for US customers on 19 October 2026, offering event contracts listed on ForecastEx, the CFTC-designated exchange affiliated with Interactive Brokers, and backed personally by Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy. Fintechbits compared the Lumina Markets prediction market setup with Robinhood, which Fintechbits reported in September routes event contracts to four venues including Kalshi and ForecastEx, while Lumina offers a single exchange, ForecastEx, and leaves out sports, the category Robinhood leaned on when it began routing football contracts to a fourth venue. Lumina did not disclose fees, user numbers or the size of Peterffy’s investment.

What the Lumina Markets prediction market app offers

The Lumina release on BusinessWire lists the kinds of questions on offer: Federal Reserve rate decisions, US tariff measures, which party holds majorities in Congress, daily temperatures in Los Angeles, and which AI lab delivers the leading model. Each contract is a yes or no question that trades between $0 and $1, with the price reflecting the market’s view of the probability.

Lumina does not list the contracts itself. It is an introducing broker, meaning it brings customers to ForecastEx, the exchange where the contracts trade. The app is open to US persons aged 21 and over on the web, iOS and Android.

Zalan Gaal, founder and chief executive of Lumina Markets, said the company wanted something serious enough to be worth people’s time and simple enough that users do not need to be specialists, “without it turning into a game along the way.” Lumina says it has no gamification mechanics and offers no sports contracts. Peterffy said in the release that a market works better the more people can take part.

Where Lumina sits in a crowded field

Most of the competition in US prediction markets is over who gets customers to the exchanges. Fintechbits reported in September that Robinhood routes event contracts to four venues: Kalshi, ForecastEx, Rothera and the exchange held by OG.com. Kalshi has signed up partners as varied as a Louisiana tribe, which Fintechbits covered in its piece on the Tunica-Biloxi prediction market app. Against that, Lumina is a single-venue broker built on the exchange its main backer founded.

Fintechbits analysis

Fintechbits analysis

Why leaving out sports is the defining choice

The no-sports decision is the most interesting thing about the Lumina Markets prediction market app, and it has costs as well as benefits. Sports are where consumer prediction markets have drawn the most attention, as Robinhood’s football launch with OG.com’s exchange showed, and they are the part that looks most like gambling. By offering only economics, politics, weather and technology questions, Lumina sidesteps that comparison and positions itself closer to a financial product than a betting app.

The cost is probably liquidity and growth. Without football, Lumina is competing for a smaller pool of users who want to trade Fed decisions and tariff outcomes, and many of them already have brokerage accounts at Interactive Brokers or Robinhood that offer the same ForecastEx contracts. A standalone app needs a reason to exist, and calling itself more serious is a marketing position that Lumina has yet to turn into a feature rivals lack.

I think Peterffy’s backing matters more than the app’s design. It suggests Interactive Brokers’ founder sees value in more front doors to ForecastEx, even ones he does not own through IBKR. That makes Lumina look partly like a distribution channel for the exchange. The release gives no fees, so there is no way to judge whether Lumina undercuts the brokers already offering the same contracts.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Lumina Markets prediction market app?

It is a web and mobile app for US customers aged 21 and over that gives access to event contracts listed on ForecastEx, a CFTC-designated exchange affiliated with Interactive Brokers. Lumina Markets is registered with the CFTC as an introducing broker and is an NFA member.

Does Lumina offer sports contracts?

No. Lumina says it offers no sports contracts and has no gamification mechanics. Its contracts cover topics such as Federal Reserve rate decisions, US tariffs, control of Congress, Los Angeles temperatures and AI model rankings.

How does Lumina compare with Robinhood’s prediction markets?

Fintechbits reported in September that Robinhood routes event contracts to four venues, including Kalshi and ForecastEx. Lumina offers a single exchange, ForecastEx, and excludes sports, which Robinhood used to launch its fourth venue ahead of the NFL season.

What to Watch Next

The first useful figure would be a user or volume number from Lumina, or any disclosure of fees. Without sports, the app’s growth depends on economic and political events, and the next large Federal Reserve decision or election cycle is the natural test of whether retail traders choose a dedicated app over their existing broker. A second venue beyond ForecastEx would also signal that Lumina is building a business of its own rather than a feeder for one exchange.

Why this matters

Fintechbits compared Lumina’s single-venue setup with Robinhood, which routes event contracts to four exchanges including ForecastEx, and notes Lumina excludes sports entirely. Lumina Markets, a CFTC-registered introducing broker backed personally by Thomas Peterffy, offers ForecastEx contracts on rates, tariffs, Congress, weather and AI. Skipping sports makes it look less like betting but narrows the audience. The open question is whether retail traders want a separate app for contracts their brokers already offer.

Primary sources

businesswire.com | PRESS RELEASE | https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261019217325/en/Lumina-Markets-Launches-Prediction-Market-App-for-U.S.-Customers

forecastex.com | COMPANY WEBSITE | https://forecastex.com