The Capgemini Research Institute published its World Payments Report 2027 on September 24, 2026. The Capgemini payments report expects stablecoins, tokenized deposits and central bank digital currencies to carry about 4% of global payments volume by 2030, and puts roughly $230 billion of bank payments revenue at stake. It draws on a May to June survey of 1,110 corporates with revenue above $1 billion and 300 banking executives, each group spread across nine markets.

Four percent sounds small. The revenue figure matters more, because the exposed income is high-margin: FX spreads, correspondent banking, float and processing fees. Those are the lines that fund a large share of transaction banking, and cross-border B2B flows generate most of them.

What the Capgemini Payments Report Found

The corporate findings read like a complaint letter. Nearly three quarters of respondents, 74%, call cross-border payments slow, costly and unpredictable. A B2B payment takes roughly 3.5 days to move from origination through to reconciliation. During that time, 57% say they lack live status, cash positions or clear pricing. All in, a typical cross-border B2B payment costs about 2% of its value.

The Capgemini payments report finds satisfaction low as well. Only one corporate in three is happy with its primary bank, although 60% of banks named corporate payment innovation a strategic investment area over the past three years.

The respondents operate in 14 markets on average, hold 11 banking relationships and send 34% of their B2B volume across borders. That fragmentation explains why round-the-clock settlement appeals to a treasurer far more than to a retail customer.

The Capgemini payments report also sizes the idle cash. About $4 trillion sits in settlement and liquidity accounts to pre-fund cross-border flows, earning little. Capgemini files stablecoins, tokenized deposits and CBDCs under the label “accelerated intelligent money.” The branding may not stick, but the pre-funding point holds: instant settlement cuts the cash parked in nostro accounts.

Banks Keep the Preference, on Conditions

The most encouraging number for banks is 71%. That share of corporates in the Capgemini payments report would pick a bank over a fintech for tokenized payments at equal cost and quality. A regulated balance sheet still counts with a finance director.

The number beside it should worry banks more. Nearly 60% of corporates would buy stablecoin services from a non-bank if their bank fails to keep pace. They also say 36% of their B2B volume already flows through non-banks.

So the preference is real, but conditional. It holds only while banks match what non-banks offer on speed, visibility and price. For transaction banking teams, that turns the survey into a pricing and product deadline rather than a comfort. Jeroen Hölscher, who heads payment services at Capgemini, said banks now have to choose what role they will play in this market. He added that a small group has already moved to shape its standards.

Tokenized Deposits Are the Bank Response

Bank executives in the Capgemini payments report rank tokenized deposits as their top near-term priority. The logic is defensive. A tokenized deposit stays on the issuing bank’s balance sheet and fits existing rules, while a stablecoin held elsewhere takes the money out of the bank.

Execution trails intent. Only 21% of banks, which Capgemini calls leaders, are scaling at least one of these instruments. The other 79% are piloting, evaluating or not considering them. Leaders expect to offset falling transaction revenue within 15 months, against 25 months for the rest, and are three times as likely to identify new revenue streams.

Recent moves show both routes. On September 2, Citi ran live tokenized deposit payments on Swift’s ledger with First Abu Dhabi Bank and OCBC, inside a pilot that runs to December. On September 22, SoFi said it is migrating its $25 billion card program to settlement in SoFiUSD, a stablecoin the bank issues itself. And on the day the Capgemini payments report came out, UK Finance said seven UK banks, including Barclays, Lloyds and Nationwide, completed the first live customer transactions in tokenized sterling deposits.

Compliance Has to Come Before the Money Moves

The compliance findings in the Capgemini payments report get less airtime than the revenue figure and probably deserve more. Settlement with these instruments cannot be reversed, so leading banks put their checks inside execution instead of reviewing transactions afterward. They are 1.5 times as likely as mainstream banks to monitor transactions across networks. They are also 1.2 times as likely to combine AI surveillance of wallet behavior with real-time AML and KYC checks in the payment flow.

That order of operations is right. A card payment can be charged back and a wire can sometimes be recalled. An on-chain transfer cannot, so screening has to happen before funds leave.

Skills are the constraint. Only 56% of leaders say they have the people to build and run tokenization, self-executing contracts and interoperability across networks. The Capgemini release gives no matching figure for mainstream banks, and the leader group is small. At 21% of 300 executives, it is roughly 63 respondents.

How Far the Capgemini Payments Report Travels

Consultancy research often doubles as a sales document, and Capgemini sells payments transformation work. The Capgemini payments report is also in its 22nd edition, and its headline is restrained. It forecasts a shift of a few percent of volume, on the argument that those few percent carry the margin.

The sample needs a closer look than the headline numbers suggest. The 1,110 corporates were split equally across just three sectors: insurance, manufacturing, and logistics and transportation. That is a large sample of three industries, not a cross-section of large companies. The release also gives no regional breakdown, so figures like the 60% cannot yet be read market by market.

Even so, the 60% is the number to watch. Treasurers are telling banks, in a survey banks will read, that they will buy stablecoin services elsewhere. That is leverage in every transaction banking renewal before 2030.

Track the 21% as well. If the next Capgemini payments report shows well over a quarter of banks scaling a tokenized instrument, the defense is working. If it stays near a fifth while the non-bank share passes 36%, the revenue sized in the Capgemini payments report will start to leave. The full report, Now Money Really Never Sleeps, is available from the Capgemini Research Institute.

For related coverage, see why a Binance stake in Circle mattered less than the distribution deal and why CSI bought Qolo to extend its payments stack.

FintechBits covers payments, banking and fintech developments for readers in the US and UK. This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Views expressed are those of the FintechBits editorial team.